Andrea sent me his NEXUS file, but whereas the paper reports 3072 MPTs of 6790 steps, I found 10872 MPTs of that length. Eoraptor and Buriolestes aren't always sauropodomorphs, Pisanosaurus is sometimes an ornithischian, Asilisaurus, Silesaurus and Sacisaurus are an unresolved trichotomy, Enantiornithes can be paraphyletic with Zhongjianornis among them, and Fake Ornithuromorpha is less resolved, as Patagopteryx and Apsaravis can be outside Hongshanornis+Aves, Archaeornithura can be a songlingornithid, etc.. I think Andrea's philosophy would be that these things vary with taxon inclusion, so aren't a definite part of his data. The absence of any included spinosaurids, carcharodontosaurines, parvicursorines or Avimimus unfortunately makes some weird 80s and 90s hypotheses untestable. After six more years of experience, I've added a new category "less likely" because I think that factors like scoring accuracy and taxon inclusion can have a larger influence. As I said in the 2012 post, the corrected TWG matrix needed 15 more steps to get a monophyletic Deinonychosauria which is the most common outcome for TWG matrices today. I'll say the Lori matrix recovers at least one hypothesis found to be "unlikely" here, so even that's not the kiss of death.
0 steps- Maniraptoromorph Compsognathus.
0 steps- Megaraptoran Gualicho.
1 step- Ceratosaurus closer to abelisauroids than Elaphrosaurus.
1 step- Megalosauroid piatnitzkysaurids.
1 step- Coelurosaurian Zuolong. Ends up as a basal maniraptoromorph between Coelurus and Ornitholestes.
1 step- Coelurid Aorun, as in its original description. It moves to Maniraptoromorpha with Coelurus.
1 step- Coelurid Tanycolagreus, as in its original description. Coelurus moves into Tyrannosauroidea with Tanycolagreus.
1 step- Compsognathid Sinosauropteryx and/or Sinocalliopteryx.
1 step- Tyrannosauroid Sinocalliopteryx or Coelurus.
1 step- Anchiornithid or archaeopterygid Xiaotingia.
1 step- Scansoriopterygids closer to Aves than Archaeopteryx.
1 step- Sapeornis closer to Aves than Confuciusornis.
1 step- Zhongjianornis sister to Pygostylia, as in its original description.
1 step- Ichthyornis closer to Aves than Hesperornis, the consensus until the recent cranial redescription of Ichthyornis.
2 steps- Theropodan Eodromaeus.
2 steps- Chilesaurus just outside Avepoda, which was my best guess back in 2015 considering the results of its original misscored matrices and my subjective feelings of what would plausibly reverse.
2 steps- Ceratosaurian Gualicho. It has an uncertain placement within the clade, though is excluded from Abelisauria.
2 steps- Megaraptora as coelurosaurs just outside of Tyrannoraptora. This was my result back in 2010 after adding Benson's Neovenatoridae data to my theropod supermatrix (since superseded by the Lori analysis). Bicentenaria is at this level too, while Guanlong and Tanycolagreus become maniraptoromorphs.
2 steps- Maniraptoran Ornitholestes.
2 steps- Hongshanornithid Parahongshanornis, as in its original description.
|Cast YPM 56693 of the Mononykus olecranus holotype pes in plantar view, courtesy of Senter.|
Quite likely to be true
3 steps- Saurischia. Herrerasaurs and Eodromaeus are theropods. Note that while some of these constraints were tested in the Ornithoscelida paper, the studies differ in both taxonomic content and characters used, so that MegaMatrix results don't necessarily correlate with Ornithoscelida paper results and should not be seen as scooping anything we find.
3 steps- Ornithischian Daemonosaurus. Chilesaurus is sister to Averostra.
3 steps- Theropodan Herrerasaurus/Tawa/Daemonosaurus. These each take three steps more, and other herrerasaurs follow when one is constrained.
3 steps- Dilophosaurid Liliensternus, as in Paul (1988).
3 steps- Ceratosauria sensu lato, combining Neoceratosauria and Coelophysoidea. Chilesaurus is the most basal theropod, Elaphrosaurus plus Limusaurus are the basal neoceratosaurs, and Gualicho is the most basal tetanurine.
3 steps- Eustreptospondylus and/or Megalosaurus outside Avetheropoda. If one is constrained, the other follows.
3 steps- Megaraptoran Eotyrannus, as in Novas et al. (2013).
3 steps- Maniraptoran Coelurus.
3 steps- Troodontid Aurornis, Anchiornis and/or Xiaotingia.
3 steps- Chongmingia sister to Ornithothoraces, as in p2 of its original description.
4 steps- Ornithischian silesaurids. Lewisuchus is outside Dinosauria, Saurischia exists, and Asilisaurus and Pisanosaurus form a silesaur grade to either side of Silesauridae.
4 steps- Phytodinosauria. Eoraptor and Buriolestes are sister to Dinosauria, while herrerasaurs and Eodromaeus are theropods.
4 steps- Ornithischian Chilesaurus. Ornithoscelida occurs.
4 steps- Theropodan Eoraptor. Buriolestes, herrerasaurs and Eodromaeus also theropods.
4 steps- Abelisaurid Eoabelisaurus, as in its original description.
4 steps- Metriacanthosaurids outside Allosauria (Allosaurus plus Carcharodontosaurus). Acrocanthosaurus joins Neovenator, so this also covers carcharodontosaurid Neovenator.
4 steps- Tyrannosauroid Compsognathus, as in Olshevsky (1991). Surprised this one is so parsimonious. A Compsognathidae with Aorun, Bicentenaria and Sinosauropteryx are the basalmost tyrannosauroids, with Sinocalliopteryx, Coeluridae including Tanycolagreus and Guanlong successively closer to core tyrannosauroids.
4 steps- Maniraptoromorph Tanycolagreus and/or Guanlong.
4 steps- Ornithomimosaurian Gualicho. Tested due to Rauhut (2003) finding the very similar Deltadromeus in this position. Note that ornithomimosaurian Elaphrosaurus is 36 steps longer, so the cases aren't that similar.
4 steps- Therizinosaurian Jianchangosaurus. Still outside Falcarius plus Beipiaosaurus, and Cau said in a comment to the last post Jianchangosaurus was still an alvarezsauroid even after adding Erlikosaurus and Shuvuuia. I'm not revealing much by saying the Lori analysis finds Jianchangosaurus to be a therizinosaur between Falcarius and Beipiaosaurus as in its original description. Seems fishy...
4 steps- Archaeopterygid Jinfengopteryx, as in its original description.
4 steps- Archaeopterygid Anchiornis.
4 steps- Oviraptorosaurian scansoriopterygids. They have an uncertain position within the clade, and therizinosaurs are still sister to oviraptorosaurs.
|Allosaurus fragilis holotype tooth (YPM 1930) in ?lingual view. Courtesy of the YPM.|
5 steps- Dilophosaurus/Cryolophosaurus closer to Averostra than Coelophysis.
5 steps- Non-avetheropod Compsognathus, as in Novas (1992). Very surprised this is so easy to get. It's even more extreme than Novas' version, where Compsognathus was at least closer to avetheropods (his Tetanurae) than Piatnitzkysaurus and Eustreptospondylus, because in the constrained trees Carnosauria still has the same content as Cau's MPTs. Sinosauropteryx joins it.
5 steps- Maniraptoromorph Eotyrannus. I'm surprised by this, since I figured the result in other matrices was due to a lack of tyrannosauroid characters, which I think are all in the MegaMatrix.
5 steps- Non-tyrannoraptoran Coelurus, as in Paul (1988).
5 steps- Avemetatarsalian alvarezsauroids, as in Sereno (1999). Jianchangosaurus is still a basal alvarezsauroid.
5 steps- Haplocheirus compsognathid/coelurid grade, as in Alifanov and Saveliev (2011). Wasn't there some analysis that recovered it here too? I just constrained it to be outside Maniraptoriformes (including alvarezsaurids).
5 steps- Non-pennaraptoran therizinosaurs, which fall out sister to Pennaraptora like the current consensus.
5 steps- Chongmingia a basal ornithurine (sensu Gauthier) outside Shenzhouraptor and Pygostylia, as in p1 of its original description. The Lori analysis recovers it in a different position than p1, p2 or Cau's analysis.
6 steps- Non-eusaurischian saurischian Eoraptor. Buriolestes follows, but herrerasaurs and Eodromaeus are theropods.
6 steps- Theropodan Guaibasaurus. Non-dinosaurian Eoraptor and Buriolestes, and this recovers Phytodinosauria.
6 steps- Eustreptospondylus closer to Neotetanurae than Megalosaurus, as in Holtz (2000). I'm actually surprised this is so unlikely.
6 steps- Carnosaurian Sinosauropteryx, as in Longrich (2002). Though Longrich's phylogeny was a bit different in having megalosaurids and metriacanthosaurids outside Avetheropoda.
6 steps- Ornithomimosaurian Haplocheirus, as in the Bayesian analyses of Cau and Lee and Worthy (2011).
6 steps- Arctometatarsalian therizinosaurs, as in Sereno (1999).
6 steps- Shenzhouraptor closer to Aves than Sapeornis.
7 steps- Sauropodomorph Staurikosaurus but not Herrerasaurus, as in pachypodosaur Staurikosaurus of Kischlat (2000).
7 steps- Megalosauroid Monolophosaurus. Megalosauroidea remains in Carnosauria.
7 steps- Coelurosaurian Neovenator. Not sure if this has been suggested in print before, but I noticed quite a few coelurosaur-like characters when scoring Neovenator for the Lori matrix. It forms the most basal coelurosaur clade with Aorun and Gualicho.
7 steps- Maniraptoran Compsognathus.
7 steps- Paravian alvarezsaurids, though note the lack of parvicursorines probably affects these numbers. They (including Jianchangosaurus and Haplocheirus) emerge as the most basal paravians.
7 steps- Basal paravian Anchiornis, Aurornis, scansoriopterygids, Serikornis and/or Xiaotingia.
7 steps- Archaeopterygid Rahonavis, as in Forster et al. (1998).
7 steps- Fake-Ornithuromorphan Confuciusornis, as in Kurochkin (2006). I really thought this would be more difficult to achieve than enantiornithine Confuciusornis (below).
|Box of Archaeornithimimus asiaticus elements from AMNH 6576, with my identifications (dc- distal caudal, dt- distal tarsal, pedal except m 1-1 and m 3-2). Is that a proximal metatarsal I in the upper left? Courtesy of the AMNH.|
8 steps- Non-eusaurischian saurischian Herrerasaurus. Eodromaeus and sometimes Eoraptor become herrerasaurs and Buriolestes is one node more stemward.
8 steps- Tetanurine Cryolophosaurus, as in Carrano et al. (2002). Dilophosaurus stays in Coelophysoidea.
8 steps- Ceratosaurian megalosaurids, as in Britt (1991). Chilesaurus falls out in a polytomy with megalosaurids and other ceratosaurs.
8 steps- Megalosauroid piatnitzkysaurids, with Megalosauroidea outside Avetheropoda. Since this is the Carrano et al. consensus, I thought it would take less steps.
8 steps- Monolophosaurus sister to Avetheropoda, as in Smith et al. (2007). Megalosaurids and piatnitzkysaurids fall out as more basal tetanurines.
8 steps- Arctometatarsalian tyrannosauroids, AKA Tyrannosaurus closer to Ornithomimus than to birds as in Holtz (1994). I'm very surprised this is so parsimonious. Coelurus and Bicentenaria join Tyrannosauroidea, but Gualicho leaves to be a ceratosaur.
8 steps- Maniraptoran tyrannosauroids, as in Sereno (1999). This is accomplished more by moving ornithomimosaurs (including Gualicho) stemward to be the most basal coelurosaurs except for Zuolong.
9 steps- Classic late 80s to early 90s topology where Staurikosaurus is sister to Herrerasaurus plus Dinosauria. Tawa plus Daemonosaurus are closer to dinosaurs than both, while Sanjuansaurus follows Herrerasaurus.
9 steps- Piatnitzkysaurus outside Orionides, as in Rauhut (2003). Condorraptor follows Piatnitzkysaurus, and megalosauroids fall outside Avetheropoda. Surprised this is so high.
9 steps- Carnosaurian Tyrannosaurus, which brings megaraptorans, Gualicho and Bicentenaria to form the sister group of Allosauroidea (including Monolophosaurus). I bet this is more parsimonious than most readers would assume given published topologies over the past two decades.
9 steps- Avialan Caudipteryx, as in its original description. The rest of Oviraptorosauria follows it, though troodontids are still closer to Aves.
9 steps- Avialan Microraptor, as in Agnolin and Novas (2013). Weirdly becomes the most basal troodontid, with that family closer to Aves than scansoriopterygids and anchiornithids.
9 steps- Avialan Unenlagia, as in its original description and Agnolin and Novas (2013). Halszkaraptorines are unenlagiids, which are outside the Troodontidae plus Ornithes clade.
9 steps- Deinonychosauria. Scansoriopterygids are oviraptorosaurs, while Jinfengopteryx and anchiornithids are avialans.
9 steps- Archaeopterygidae sister to Troodontidae. Anchiornithines fall out as archaeopterygids.
10 steps- Monolophosaurus outside Orionides, as in Carrano et al. (2002). Megalosaurids and piatnitzkysaurids form successively closer outgroups to Avetheropoda.
10 steps- Fukuivenator excluded from Alvarezsauridae plus Therizinosauria plus Pennaraptora as in its original description. It emerges as the sister to other maniraptorans.
10 steps- Eumaniraptora excluding troodontids as in Agnolin and Novas (2013). Scansoriopterygids are oviraptorosaurs.
10 steps- Dromaeosaurid Xiaotingia, as in Senter et al. (2012). Falls out in Microraptoria.
10 steps- Dromaeosaurid Balaur, as in its original description. Falls out sister to Unenalagiinae plus Halszkaraptorinae.
11 steps- Tyrannosauroid Acrocanthosaurus, as in Bakker et al. (1988). Tyrannosauroids become carnosaurs, with Sinraptor, Acrocanthosaurus and Bicentenaria successively closer to the 'core tyrannosauroid' clade of Eotyrannus, Gualicho, megaraptorans and Tyrannosaurus. Tanycolagreus and Guanlong are now maniraptoromorphs.
11 steps- Alvarezsauroid Nqwebasaurus. Alvarezsauroids emerge sister to ornithomimosaurs, with Haplocheirus and Jianchangosaurus forming a basal  arctometatarsalian clade.
11 steps- Mahakala outside Unenlagiinae plus Eudromaeosauria (Halszkaraptor follows), as in most TWG matrices (though Senter et al. 2012 recovered it sister to unenlagiines like Cau).
12 steps- Alvarezsauroid Chilesaurus, where it emerged in the Lori matrix back in 2015.
12 steps- Ornithuran (sensu Gauthier) oviraptorosaurs, as in Maryanska et al. (2002). Constraining Khaan to be closer to Meleagris than Archaeopteryx results in oviraptorosaurs (including scansoriopterygids) being the first clade to diverge from the avian stem after Archaeopteryx.
12 steps- Basal paravian Jinfengopteryx, as in Foth et al. (2014).
13 steps- Coelophysoid Elaphrosaurus, as in Paul (1988). Ceratosauria sensu lato forms, Elaphrosaurus is outside core coelophysoids and Limusaurus and sometimes Gualicho follow.
13 steps- Compsognathid Nqwebasaurus, as in Novas et al. (2013). Compsognathids (including Aorun) become ornithomimosaurs.
13 steps- Dromaeosaurid Rahonavis. Emerges in the unenalgiine plus halszkaraptorine clade.
14 steps- Neovenatorid megaraptorans, though this actually moves Neovenator out of Carnosauria into Tyrannosauroidea, so isn't that similar to Benson's topology.
14 steps- Enantiornithine Confuciusornis.
15 steps- Sauropodomorphan Chilesaurus, where it emerges as the most basal member.
15 steps- Carnosaurian Ceratosaurus, as in Currie (1995). Other ceratosaurs follow.
15 steps- Alvarezsaurids closer to Aves than dromaeosaurids or troodontids. Haplocheirus and Jianchangosaurus remain behind as ornithomimosaurs. Note the lack of parvicursorines probably affects this number.
15 steps- Archaeopterygid Unenlagia, as in Forster et al. (1998). Buitreraptor remains in Dromaeosauridae.
|Cladogram of archosauromorphs after Kischlat (2000). Note saurischian Marasuchus and sauropodomorph Staurikosaurus.|
16 steps- Saurischian Marasuchus, as in Kischlat (2000). Ornithischian silesaurs result, and Lewisuchus sister to Eodromaeus plus avepods.
16 steps- Non-avetheropod Sinraptor as in Longrich (2002). Carnosauria becomes a grade, Acrocanthosaurus joins Neovenator, and Guanlong and Tanycolagreus become maniraptoromorphs.
18 steps- Basal paravian Archaeopteryx. Deinonychosauria forms, and anchiornithids and scansoriopterygids are further from Eumaniraptora.
19 steps- Coelophysoid ornithischians or ornithischians sister to Neotheropoda, as in Baron (2017). Chilesaurus is the most basal theropod.
19 steps- Basal deinonychosaur Archaeopteryx, as in Xu et al. (2011). Anchiornis, Aurornis and Serikornis are one node closer to Dromaeosauridae plus Troodontidae.
20 steps- Monolophosaurus sister to Guanlong, as in Carr (2006) who proposed they were an adult and juvenile of the same species. The pairing resolves as sister to Tyrannoraptora.
21 steps- Carnosaurian megaraptorans. Er, wow. The Carrano et al. consensus is blown out of the water. They don't even group with Neovenator, instead (including Gualicho and Bicentenaria) being in a trichotomy with megalosaurids and an Allosauroidea including piatnitzkysaurids.
I'm drawing the line here for plausibility
22 steps- Theropodan Marasuchus, as in Olshevsky (1991). Silesaurids, Eoraptor+Buriolestes and herrerasaurians are also theropods.
23 steps- Avialan therizinosaurs, as in Maryanska et al. (2002). One of the odder parts of the classic 'oviraptorosaurs are birds' analysis is that they recovered therizinosaurs as closer to birds than dromaeosaurids or troodontids, which was only briefly mentioned in the text, while they removed Troodontidae and Therizinosauria from their figured cladogram. Constraining this result leads to oviraptorosaurs being dragged along, and the whole of Caenagnathiformes is sister to taxa closer to Aves like scansoriopterygids, anchiornithids, Archaeopteryx, etc..
24 steps- 'Allosaur' Ornitholestes, as in Paul (1988). Although Paul includes Ornitholestes in his Allosauridae, he views that family as paraphyletic to tyrannosaurids and his figure 10-1 shows Allosaurus closer to tyrannosaurids than Ornitholestes. I thus only specified Ornitholestes to be closer to Allosaurus than megalosaurids, piatnitzkysaurids, Compsognathus and birds. The resulting tree has ornitholestiids (including Zuolong) sister to core allosauroids including Monolophosaurus (which was considered closer to Allosaurus by Paul too- pg. 307), but tyrannosauroids and compsognathids are coelurosaurs.
24 steps- Ornithuran (sensu Gauthier) alvarezsaurids. The most crownward alvarezsaurids were ever proposed to be, closer to Aves than Archaeopteryx. They end up just crownward of anchiornithids, and weirdly form a clade there with scansoriopterygids and oviraptorosaurs. As usual, the absence of parvicursorines probably affects the numbers.
24 steps- Archaeopterygid Protarchaeopteryx, as in Paul (2002). Xiaotingia and scansoriopterygids are also closer to Archaeopteryx than Aves in these trees.
25 steps- Tyrannosauroids sister to Pennaraptora, as in Sereno (1999). Like Sereno's trees, alvarezsauroids and therizinosaurs (Beipiaosaurus) form an expanded Arctometatarsalia, though now joined by Ornitholestes, Aorun and Compsognathus. Coelurus becomes a tyrannosauroid.
26 steps- Ornithischian alvarezsaurids, as in Alifanov and Barsbold (2009). Chilesaurus emerges as an alvarezsauroid. Note the true number is probably much higher since neither included alvarezsaurid has cranial material.
30 steps- Ceratosaurian ornithomimosaurs, as in my half-joking post. They don't even come out by Limusaurus or Elaphrosaurus, instead Ornithomimosauria (including Zuolong and Gualicho) are sister to other ceratosaurs. How disappointing.
35 steps- Sauropodomorphan Beipiaosaurus. Falcarius stays by oviraptorosaurs, while Beipiaosaurus ends up sister to Guaibasaurus.
35 steps- Phytodinosaurian Beipiaosaurus. Falcarius stays by oviraptorosaurs, while Beipiaosaurus is sister to Chilesaurus as an ornithischian.
36 steps- Ornithomimosaurian Elaphrosaurus. Gualicho follows, and ornithomimosaurs move stemward to be sister to Tyrannoraptora.
36 steps- Megalosaurid abelisauroids, as in Paul (1988). Megalosaurus moves to Abelisauria.
36 steps- Dromaeosaurid Ornitholestes, as in Makovicky (1995). Fukuivenator emerges as the most basal dromaeosaurid, and dromaeosaurids are the most basal pennaraptorans with oviraptorosaurs, scansoriopterygids, anchiornithids and troodontids successively closer to birds. This is equivalent to my old post about getting dromaeosaurid evolution backwards.
37 steps- Bullatosauria. This actually moves ornithomimosaurs plus alvarezsauroids into Avialae to be sister to troodontids. I had to specify both Zanabazar and Sinornithoides as troodontids, because specifying Zanabazar alone moves it into Ornithomimosauria without the other troodontids at a lower cost of 21 steps.
37 steps- Oviraptorosaurian Sapeornis, as in Paul (2010). Oviraptorosaurs move to just closer to Aves than Archaeopteryx, with scansoriopterygids closer to core oviraptorosaurs than Sapeornis.
|Phylogram from Huene (1923) showing his idea of what were carnosaurs vs. coelurosaurs.|
39 steps- Huene's (1923) Carnosauria vs. Coelurosauria dichotomy. For such an archaic concept, this works surprisingly well. The trick is that Huene's and Cau's Carnosauria are basically the same. By 1923, Huene had moved Ceratosaurus to Coelurosauria and placed tyrannosaurids and Elaphrosaurus there as well. His carnosaurs are Megalosaurus, Eustreptospondylus and Allosaurus. Even looking at the taxa not included in Cau's analysis, most shake out right- coelurosaurian Sarcosaurus, Halticosaurus, Procompsognathus, Podokesaurus, Betasuchus, Genyodectes, Proceratosaurus and Thecocoelurus vs. carnosaurian Magnosaurus, Poekilopleuron, Spinosaurus and Metriacanthosaurus. There's a load of non-theropods in there and Huene got Sarcosaurus? andrewsi, Dryptosaurus and Valdoraptor wrong, but still impressive. So this basically how many steps it takes to force carnosaurs stemward of Ceratosauria sensu lato.
43 steps- Sauriurine enantiornithines, as in Martin (1983). Basically constraining enantiornithines (Bohaiornis and Cruralispennia here) as closer to Archaeopteryx than to Aves. Rahonavis and Balaur emerge as sauriurines, but surprisingly scansoriopterygids, Sapeornis, jeholornithids, Confuciusornis, Zhongjianornis and Protopteryx remain as closer to Aves ('Ornithurae' in BANDit terminology).
57 steps- Sauriurine enantiornithines and Confuciusornis, as in Hou et al. (1995). This is more in line with BANDit thought, as not only enantiornithines, Archaeopteryx and Confuciusornis fall out as sauriurines, but also Protopteryx, Sapeornis, jeholornithids (Martin, 2004), Vorona (Kurochkin, 2006), Rahonavis and Xiaotingia (those two as archaeopterygids). Unlike the plus 43 step tree, scansoriopterygids are outside Sauriurae plus 'Ornithurae' similar to Czerkas' hypothesis.
58 steps- Abelisaurid Piatnitzkysaurus, as in Currie and Zhao (1994). Condorraptor follows, Eoabelisaurus also becomes an abelisaurid.
75 steps- 'Carnosauria' vs. 'Oviraptorosauria' of Russell and Dong (1994). The Alxasaurus description is my most nostalgic technical paper, because it was the first I tracked down that wasn't in Science or Nature. The authors presented a strange new analysis of theropods, where tetanurines fell into 'Carnosauria' (Baryonyx, Yangchuanosaurus, Allosaurus, dromaeosaurids and tyrannosaurids in successive order) and 'Oviraptorosauria' (ornithomimosaurs, therizinosauroids, oviraptorosaurs and troodontids in successive order). Needless to say, it doesn't hold up, even when topology within each clade is allowed to vary like it is here. Birds end up in 'Oviraptorosauria', so that would be Coelurosauria under current nomenclature.
78 steps- "Pneumatocrania", Holtz's (1994) concept combining oviraptorids, 'elmisaurids', tyrannosaurids, troodontids and ornithomimosaurs to the exclusion of dromaeosaurids and birds. Cau's matrix doesn't result in anything close to Holtz's topology for this clade, with troodontids sister to oviraptorosaurs (including scansoriopterygids), and ornithomimosaurs sister to tyrannosauroids with alvarezsauroids and therizinosaurs in a trichotomy with Tyrann+Ornithom. As with Bullatosauria, Sinornithoides had to be specified as well.
81 steps- Arctometatarsalia sensu Holtz (1994). This is like "Pneumatocrania" except it excludes oviraptorids. In Cau's analysis, this results in most oviraptorosaurs (including scansoriopterygids) being maniraptorans, but 'elmisaurid' Anzu being sister to Zanabazar deep within Troodontidae. Again unlike Holtz's topology, tyrannosauroids, ornithomimosaurs, alvarezsauroids, therizinosaurians and Fukuivenator are successively closer to troodontids.
84 steps- Huene's Pachypodosauria, where his carnosaurs are closer to sauropodomorphs than his coelurosaurs. Pachypodosauria ends up containing sauropodomorphs and ceratosaurs plus Cau's expanded Carnosauria, with every other theropod a coelurosaur.
[Edit] 100 steps-
140 steps- Coelophysoid birds, as in Raath (1985). Other theropods known at the time were constrained as monophyletic relative to a Coelophysoidea containing rhodesiensis, Archaeopteryx, Hesperornis, Ichthyornis and Meleagris. Bicentenaria, Fukuivenator, halszkaraptorids, scansoriopterygids and paraphyletic anchiornithids end up bridging the gap between coelophysoids and birds.
191+ steps- Kurochkin's (2006) diphyletic birds. BANDit Kurochkin had a weird hypothesis that Archaeopteryx and enantiornithines were theropods, but Confuciusornis, Patagopteryx, Ichthyornis, Hesperornis and of course Aves are birds. These diverged at the typically vague BANDit level of Archosauromorpha or Archosauria, with no comment on where crocodylians, ornithischians, sauropodomorphs, etc. go.
Ignoring maniraptoromorphs (so as not to hint at Lori's topology) I'm most surprised by the robusticity of Cau's expanded Carnosauria, the rootward mobility of compsognathid-grade taxa, how unparsimonious carnosaurian megaraptorans are, and how parsimonious ceratosaurian megalosaurids and arctometatarsalian tyrannosaurids are. I think Gualicho is the most interesting theropod right now in terms of just what it is, since its remains are decent but it can pretty easily move between ceratosaurs, tyrannosauroids and ornithomimosaurs. Bicentenaria also finds its way into a suprisingly large number of hypotheses, so deserves a more detailed description.
References- Huene, 1923. Carnivorous Saurischia in Europe since the Triassic. Bulletin of the Geological Society of America. 34, 449-458.
Martin, 1983. The origin and early radiation of birds. in Brush and Clark, (eds.). Perspectives in Ornithology. 291-338.
Paul, 1984. The archosaurs: A phylogenetic study. In Reif and Westphal (eds.). Third Symposium on Mesozoic Terrestrial Ecosystems, Short Papers. 175-180.
Raath, 1985. The theropod Syntarsus and its bearing on the origin of birds. In Hecht, Ostrom, Viohl and Wellnhofer (eds.). The Beginnings of Birds. Freunde des Jura-Museums Eichstätt, Eichstätt. 219-227.
Bakker, Williams and Currie, 1988. Nanotyrannus, a new genus of pygmy tyrannosaur, from the latest Cretaceous of Montana. Hunteria. 1, 1-30.
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